StrateG Update - Week 32 - Q3 - 2023
Patience is key
CONTENTS
Overview of this week
Bitcoin - $BTC
2Y+ channel is broken
Bullish X
Horizontal resistance
Step-like formation
Altcap
Stocks
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Real Estate - Dutch Residential Property prices since 1970
Supermacro context
Bitcoin
SP500
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Please note that while I can provide information and insights based on my knowledge, it's important to remember that I cannot offer specific financial advice. #nfa
Overview of this week
Crypto-related News:
Insiders at BlackRock express confidence that approval for a Bitcoin ETF ($BLK) is not a question of "if" but "when."
PayPal launches $PYUSD, a stablecoin backed by US dollar deposits, short-term Treasury bills, and cash equivalents. Venmo, owned by PayPal, announces plans to incorporate the crypto stablecoin $PYUSD into its platform.
The Federal Reserve now mandates prior approval for state banks engaged in the issuance, possession, or transaction of crypto stablecoins.
Microsoft unveils its intention to delve into the domains of digital payments and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
The SEC plans to appeal the court ruling asserting that Ripple's $XRP is not a security.
The application for a Bitcoin ETF by Ark Invest is delayed by the SEC.
Sam Bankman-Fried has been imprisoned for tampering with evidence.
Recent financial disclosures shed light on former President Trump's ownership of Ethereum valued at $250,000.
Financial News:
American credit card debt reaches an unprecedented milestone, crossing the $1 trillion mark.
The US experiences a rise in inflation to 3.2%, a figure slightly below initial expectations.
Bitcoin (BTC)
2Y+ channel is broken again! - Update
Four weeks ago, I observed that the 2Y+ Yellow channel was broken for the first time. It's essential to exercise patience in this situation since a well-established channel like this one is typically not retested and resolved within just a few hours. Instead, it has already taken a total of 7 weeks for this retest to occur, indicating that the decisive move is likely to happen soon.
This week price has managed to break above the yellow channel again. The weekly close will be very important.
Bullish X - Update
As anticipated in last weeks analyses, the bullish cross between the 200 S(D)MA (blue line) and the 200 S(W)MA (red line) has become inevitable at this point in time. The convergence of these lines has intensified further compared to the previous week, reinforcing the likelihood of the bullish crossover in the coming week.
Step-like formation - Update
Bitcoin's recent price action has formed three subsequent bases since Q4/2022. Together they form the first impulse and first correction of the parabolic move I’m anticipating. Once consolidation of Base 3 is final, it looks final now, an impulsive bust to the 60k region in little time is to be expected based on the inline graph. [Green box]
From an Elliott Wave perspective, Bitcoin's current formation aligns perfectly:
Wave 1 (W1): Extends from Base 1 to Base 3.
Wave 3 (W3): Spans from Base 3 to Base 4.
Wave 5 (W5): Projects from Base 4 to the sell point.
The step-like formation Bitcoin is forming appears to be in the final stage of base 3.
Invalidation: Break below Base 3 into Base 2 zone.