StrateG Update - Week 34 - Q3 - 2023
CONTENTS
Overview of this week
Bitcoin - $BTC
2Y+ channel is broken
Bullish X
Horizontal resistance
Step-like formation
Altcap
Stocks
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Real Estate - Dutch Residential Property prices since 1970
Supermacro context
Bitcoin
SP500
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Please note that while I can provide information and insights based on my knowledge, it's important to remember that I cannot offer specific financial advice. #nfa
Overview of this week
Financial:
US Government debt is projected to increase by $5.2 billion daily for the next decade.
FED Chair Jerome Powell expresses concern over ongoing high inflation levels and signals the likelihood of additional interest rate hikes.
The news about Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE joining BRICS on January 1st, 2024, highlights a major geopolitical and economic development. These countries intend to move away from the US Dollar for trade settlements, potentially impacting global financial dynamics.
Crypto:
Elon Musk endorses Twitter as a cryptocurrency-friendly platform, specifically mentioning its friendliness towards Dogecoin ($DOGE). This indicates a growing role of social media in the cryptocurrency space.
There was a notable Bitcoin outflow during the week of 10k BTC. In total a significant 30,000 Bitcoin have been moved into cold storage.
The fact that BlackRock owns a substantial portion (8.1%) of MicroStrategy implies indirect ownership of a significant Bitcoin holding (~12,000 BTC).
Tweet of this week <— Curious to hear my insights on the charts I've been sharing in this newsletter?
Bitcoin (BTC)
Following Bitcoin’s first and second halvings, the price reached the upper black trendline on the semi-log chart, compare blue arrows. After the third halving, it hasn't reached this level but has formed a midcycle peak (3), similar to the (iii)-peak after the first halving. Moreover, historically, bounces from the lower black trendline have always resulted a subsequent parabolic trajectory. These observations together show that a blow-off top preceding the fourth halving is more than likely.
The longer it takes, the higher the targets! The black trendlines keep rising.
2Y+ channel - Update
Last week, the price faced resistance at the upper trendline of the 2Y+ descending channel. This week, it consolidated around $26k, testing the 200 E(W)MA repeatedly. Note that it has maintained the Higher-High-Higher-Low pattern since November. Long-term crypto charts often show exponential trends, making EMAs preferable for capturing them. EMAs react faster than SMAs, have reduced lag and aid in adapting to market changes more quickly.