StrateG Update - Week 40 - Q4 - 2023

2Y+ channel broken

CONTENTS

Overview of this week

• Bitcoin - $BTC

  • Shortterm Elliott Wave

  • 2Y+ channel

  • Step-like formation

• Ethereum - $ETH

• Altcap

• Stocks

• US Dollar Index (DXY)

Supermacro context

• Bitcoin

• SP500

• US Dollar Index (DXY)

Please note that while I can provide information and insights based on my knowledge, it's important to remember that I cannot offer specific financial advice. #nfa

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Overview of this week

• Crypto News:

  • Grayscale has submitted an SEC application to transform its Ethereum trust into a spot ETF.

  • Sam Bankman-Fried, who reportedly offered $5 billion to dissuade Donald Trump from running in the 2024 presidential election, is now facing a trial for one of the most significant fraud cases in U.S. history and could potentially serve up to 115 years in prison.

• Financial News:

  • U.S. mortgage rates have reached their highest level in over 22 years.

  • Iraq is planning to prohibit all cash withdrawals in U.S. dollars.

  • The US jobs report raises important questions. Despite the addition of 336,000 new jobs vs. 170,000 expected, the unemployment rate remained at 3.8 percent, with 6.4 million unemployed individuals. Moreover, the number of long-term unemployed barely changed at 1.2 million, and 5.5 million people wanting jobs weren't counted as unemployed. Government employment increased by 73,000, accounting for 22% of new jobs, while the transportation sector saw minimal growth. Furthermore, 151,000 of the new jobs are part-time, with 132,000 being secondary jobs!

    Tweet of this week —> “Bears last dream”

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Bitcoin (BTC)

→ Supermacro Context

Shortterm Elliott Wave - Update

Three weeks ago I showed two options for the current correction in the short-term Elliott Wave we are tracking. So far price keeps opting for the running flat option, with this week another green candle distancing from the light-green rectangular box.

• Running Flat: When C is higher than A, I expect it for 95% to play out this way, invalidation lies at $24.8k.

• Irregular Flat: When C is lower than A, I expect it for 5% to play out this way, with a bottom target set at $22k at the 0.5 Fib level of W1.

Note that the Higher-High-Higher-Low pattern since November is maintained so far. To change the bullish narrative, the price needs to drop below $24.8k, which hasn't happened. The August monthly was in between the blue and red line in no-man's-land, a region where price still resides and hence a cautious stance remains important

FAQ
What does a Flat W2 imply?
From the alternation rule of EW-theory it suggests that W4 is likely to be a sharp zigzag correction, indicating a potentially volatile period after W3.

Why is the expectation only 5% for an irregular flat?
This low expectation suggests a drop to the 51-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA), an event that has occurred only approximately once every four years, with the last instance happening around a year ago. See also the next section about the DCA-zone.

Why is the expectation of a regular Flat 0%, when C retraces as deep as A?
Since B is a new high with respect to the red 5th wave top within W1, this option is invalidated.

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2Y+ channel - Update