Strateš¾ Update - Week 50 | Q4 | 2025
Beartrap or Bulltrap?
The information and insights are based on my knowledge; donāt take it as financial advice.
Content
BITCOIN
ALTCOINS
STOCKS
FOREX
SUPERMACRO CONTEXT (BTC/STOCKS/FOREX)
1. BITCOIN
First I want to look at several narratives that flood the market
(read with ā>ā$BTC Pre-Halving Patternā)
4-year cycle is over!!
I prefer calling it the halving cycle. Historically, after each halving, Bitcoin tends to roughly rally in the first year, decline in the second, and then begin recovering as the next halving approaches alongside the channelās lower trend line. That broader halving cycle still seems intact. After the fourth halving, Bitcoin price has risen strongly and continues to make higher highs and higher lows. In previous cycles, the halving-day price has never been broken during the following bear market. If Bitcoin were to enter a bear market now, the projected bottom would fall below that levelāpossible, but very unusual.
Long-term moving averages like the 50-week SMA are currently broken, which also occurred at the start of past bear markets.
That alone isnāt proof a bear market must follow. More important are signs of long-term holder capitulationāsomething we are not seeingāand whether volume-weighted moving averages are holding, which they currently are. If someone prefers a more cautious approach, they can wait until price reclaims those long-term averages before re-entering. Markets can be quick during recoveries, so have a plan.
The current downturn resembles the 2019 pre-COVID pullback.
At that time, there was also no real euphoria. The decline was mostly a correction to an overly fast recovery before the third halving, and it ultimately retested the lower boundary of Bitcoinās long-term channel during the COVID crash. But that correction happened only after a clear euphoric blow-off top in 2017 following the second halving. This time, there hasn't been Euphoria and longterm holders are still sitting on the bags they filled in the $25k-$75k range.
The Bitcoin Bollinger Band Width has dipped below 100 ā flashing a rare green signal. Historically, every time this triggers, Bitcoin follows with a direct parabolic leg up. No red signal flashed in the previous months...
Bitcoin is echoing GOOGLās preāblow-off ā07: same Bollinger Bandwidth squeeze, same Elliott Wave rhythm.
Note how during the final upswing for GOOGL the Bollinger Bandwidth squeeze got broken ā> blow-off top followed (compare purple rockets ;) )
High timeframe moving averages were signaling the end of the bull market as well back thenā¦
After the blow-off wave GOOGL fell steeply during the 2008 recession.