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StrateG Update - Week 43 | Q4 | 2023

StrateG Update - Week 43 | Q4 | 2023

Disbelief all over the place

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Gert van Lagen
Oct 28, 2023
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StrateG Update - Week 43 | Q4 | 2023
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CONTENTS

Overview of this week

  • Bitcoin - $BTC

    • Shortterm Elliott Wave

    • 2Y+ channel

    • Step-like formation

  • Ethereum - $ETH

  • Altcap

  • Stocks

  • US Dollar Index (DXY)

Supermacro context

  • Bitcoin

  • SP500

  • US Dollar Index (DXY)

Please note that while I can provide information and insights based on my knowledge, it's important to remember that I cannot offer specific financial advice. #nfa

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News of this week

  • Crypto:

    • BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust is now listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC).

    • SEC Commissioner acknowledges shortcomings in handling Bitcoin and crypto, suggesting room for improvement.

    • A judge issues an order for the SEC to reevaluate Grayscale's proposal for a Spot Bitcoin ETF.

    • Bitcoin has experienced a 107% surge in value within the current year.

    • CFTC Commissioner expresses the belief that the market is prepared for Spot Bitcoin ETFs.

    • SEC Chair Gary Gensler discloses having 8-10 applications for Bitcoin ETFs awaiting the commission's review.

    • US Senator Cynthia Lummis calls on the Department of Justice to pursue criminal charges against Binance and Tether.

    • Sam Bankman-Fried claims that he believed it was within the bounds of the law to access FTX customer funds through Alameda Research.

    • SEC files charges against BlackRock, citing a lack of disclosure regarding their investments.

      Tweet of this week —> “The problem with convictions”


Bitcoin (BTC)

→ Supermacro Context

Shortterm Elliott Wave - Update 🎈

Six weeks ago I showed two options for the first correction in the Elliott Wave which started in Nov’22. For a long time price opted for the running flat, which got confirmed this week by breaking above the B-wave.

Cheers to everyone who didn’t get bored out!

  • Running Flat (solid black line): When C is higher than A, I expect it for 95% to play out this way, invalidation lies at $24.8k.

  • Irregular Flat (dashed black line): When C is lower than A, I expect it for 5% to play out this way, with a bottom target set at $22k at the 0.5 Fib level of W1.

FAQ
What does a Flat W2 imply?
From the alternation rule of EW-theory it suggests that W4 is likely to be a sharp zigzag correction, indicating a potentially volatile period after W3.
Why is the expectation only 5% for an irregular flat?
This low expectation suggests a drop to the 51-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA), an event that has occurred only approximately once every four years, with the last instance happening around a year ago. See also the next section about the DCA-zone.
Why is the expectation of a regular Flat 0%, when C retraces as deep as A?
Since B is a new high with respect to the red 5th wave top within W1, this option is invalidated.

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