StrateG Update - Week 41 - Q4 - 2023

Don't get bored out

CONTENTS

Overview of this week

• Bitcoin - $BTC

  • Shortterm Elliott Wave

  • 2Y+ channel

  • Step-like formation

• Ethereum - $ETH

• Altcap

• Stocks

• US Dollar Index (DXY)

Supermacro context

• Bitcoin

• SP500

• US Dollar Index (DXY)

Please note that while I can provide information and insights based on my knowledge, it's important to remember that I cannot offer specific financial advice. #nfa

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News of this week

• Crypto:

  • Ferrari now accepts cryptocurrency as a form of payment for its vehicles.

  • The SEC opts not to contest a court ruling on Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF.

  • According to Bloomberg analysts, spot Bitcoin ETFs have a 90% likelihood of receiving approval.

  • OpenAI and ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman views Bitcoin as a significant technological advancement.

  • Fidelity, a $4.5 trillion asset management firm, states that Bitcoin is the most secure and decentralized digital currency in comparison to other digital assets.

  • Prosecutors allege a plot involving Sam Bankman-Fried and Caroline Ellison, his ex-girlfriend, to manipulate Bitcoin's price by selling customer BTC and influencing regulatory actions against Binance.

• Other:

  • Israel reports the seizure of cryptocurrency wallets belonging to Hamas.

  • The U.S. national debt has been increasing at a rate of $1.2 billion per hour over the past 19 days.

  • U.S. inflation stands at 3.7%, exceeding earlier predictions.

    Tweet of this week —> “BTC vs ETH”

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Bitcoin (BTC)

→ Supermacro Context

Shortterm Elliott Wave - Update

Four weeks ago I showed two options for the current correction in the short-term Elliott Wave started in Nov’22. So far price keeps opting for the running flat option, with this week a test of the light-green rectangular box.

• Running Flat (solid black line): When C is higher than A, I expect it for 95% to play out this way, invalidation lies at $24.8k.

• Irregular Flat (dashed black line): When C is lower than A, I expect it for 5% to play out this way, with a bottom target set at $22k at the 0.5 Fib level of W1.

Note that the Higher-High-Higher-Low pattern since November is maintained so far. To change the bullish narrative, the price needs to drop below $24.8k, which hasn't happened. The August monthly was in between the blue and red line in no-man's-land, a region where price still resides and hence a cautious stance remains important

FAQ
What does a Flat W2 imply?
From the alternation rule of EW-theory it suggests that W4 is likely to be a sharp zigzag correction, indicating a potentially volatile period after W3.

Why is the expectation only 5% for an irregular flat?
This low expectation suggests a drop to the 51-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA), an event that has occurred only approximately once every four years, with the last instance happening around a year ago. See also the next section about the DCA-zone.

Why is the expectation of a regular Flat 0%, when C retraces as deep as A?
Since B is a new high with respect to the red 5th wave top within W1, this option is invalidated.

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2Y+ channel - Update

This week Bitcoin has been retesting the 2.25-year black descending channel after last week’s breakout. For now the struggle to distance from the trend continues.

If we breach 10% above the channel, approximately around 30,000, it's likely to initiate the parabolic surge of W5. It's important to note that W5, being a blow-off wave, might exhibit a steep ascent as depicted, but the key point is that there's one final impulse left.

Invalidation remains at 13.8k, where W4 should not be lower than W1.