Strate𝔾 Update - Week 17 | Q2 | 2025
Bitcoin absolutely ready to blast-off now Dollar fully breaks down.
The information and insights are based on my knowledge; don’t take it as financial advice.
Summary
Bitcoin bounces from bull market support
Altcoin market cap back at neck line of its Cup and Handle pattern.
Dollar breaks parabolically down (finally)
Stocks most likely are entering pre-recession period; topped out.
Key Metrics
Current status 100% Winning strategy: 🔵—> ALL-IN
a weekly candle close below $76.1k would flash the black signal.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread is well above zero
market top before recession has been printed.
Content
BITCOIN
ALTCOINS
STOCKS
FOREX
SUPERMACRO CONTEXT (BTC/STOCKS/FOREX)
1. BITCOIN
2009-2025 Bull Market - Update
From 2009 to 2025, Bitcoin appears to almost have completed its first full Elliott Wave cycle — marked from ① to ⑤ — on the symmetrical log scale. Remarkably, throughout its history, BTC has never experienced a true bear market, consistently holding above the 210,000-block moving averages. As we approach a likely recession, I anticipate a final blow-off top toward the upper trendline of this long-term channel, potentially reaching ~$320,000, before Bitcoin enters its first real bear market.
In the chart below, the $320k price levels coincides with the Cup with Handle pattern on the logarithmic scale.
Targets for Bitcoin breakouts can be projected on either a linear scale (red) or a logarithmic scale (black). For this bull cycle, $100K was the linear target. However, in previous cycles, this point in the structure typically marked the very beginning of the parabolic phase.
Don’t be a linear thinker in an exponential world — you won’t make it.
