Strate𝔾 Update - Week 19 | Q2 | 2025
Spark needed for the dollar to tank further and enter alt season - FED?
The information and insights are based on my knowledge; don’t take it as financial advice.
Summary
Bitcoin breaks out of falling wedge
Altcoin market cap breaks above neck line of its Cup and Handle pattern.
Dollar in a strong downtrend, confirmed multiple weeks below support (finally)
Stocks most likely topped out, pre-recession dead-cat move.
Key Metrics
Current status 100% Winning strategy: 🔵—> ALL-IN
a weekly candle close below $77.7k would flash the black signal.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread is well above zero
market top before recession has been printed.
Economic Calendar
May 7th - Fed Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference - 19:30
Content
BITCOIN
ALTCOINS
STOCKS
FOREX
SUPERMACRO CONTEXT (BTC/STOCKS/FOREX)
1. BITCOIN
2022-2025 Bull Market - Update
Bitcoin is entering stage 2.4: Trend Continuation. This follows the classic Wyckoff market structure, where we first see (Re)-Accumulation or (Re)-Distribution (Green/Red), followed by a Fast Price Move (Blue). After that, the market enters a phase of Building Pre-tension (Yellow), setting the stage for the next move: Trend Continuation (Red).
Two main invalidation levels are to be considered:
Structure-wise: a weekly close below the $77.7k would confirm a bearish break and cancel the outlook of 2.4 Trend Continuation;
Time-wise: the period between 2.2 and 2.3 (20 weeks) can’t get longer than the period between 2.1 and 2.2 (34 weeks).
