Strate𝔾 Update - Week 2 | Q1 | 2025
BTC Eyes New ATH as Alts Gain Momentum
The information and insights are based on my knowledge; don’t take it as financial advice.
News
Ripple’s CEO calls the current Congress the most crypto-friendly ever and acknowledges a thriving "Trump bull market."
Do Kwon pleads not guilty to U.S. fraud allegations tied to Terra’s $40 billion crash.
The IRS postpones enforcing crypto tax reporting rules until 2026. (IRS: Internal Revenue Service, which is the federal agency responsible for collecting taxes and enforcing tax laws in the United States)
Morgan Stanley’s E-Trade, overseeing $1.3 trillion in assets, is exploring crypto trading options.
Over $7.11 trillion in value was added to the U.S. stock market in 2024.
Key Metrics
Current status 100% Winning strategy: 🔵—> ALL-IN
a weekly candle close below $67.2k would flash the black signal.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread is well above zero
market top before recession to be expected within 3 months
The MVRV Z-Score measures the normalized distance between Bitcoin's market cap and realized cap. Glassnode has adjusted the red range to align with the 2021 top, but I believe the upcoming bull market peak will more likely produce a higher spike, similar to 2013 and 2017. A key reason for this expectation is that Bitcoin is breaking out relative to M1 (money supply), a pattern seen in 2017 but not in 2021.
The RHODL ratio is currently at a level where prices have historically tripled during strong rallies. This indicator is excellent for identifying whether the market has already reached its actual peak—note the mid-cycle 2013 top and its comparison to the 2021 top. With BTC breaking out relative to M1, a 2017-style blow-off phase seems likely. This expectation is further supported by the fact that BTC still needs one final touch of the upper trendline (refer to the Macro Elliott Wave count) to complete the 2009-2025 bull market and transition into its first full-scale recession.
The market is well on its way to a fresh ATH after two consecutive green weeks. From Elliott Wave perspective, this represents a try to leave the orange subwave 4 behind, within wave iii, within blue wave ⑤. The price is setting up for the orange wave 5, completing wave iii. Once it prints an ATH, Bitcoin is primed to soar to $170k, followed by a dip to the lower Fibonacci level around $130k, and finally, a blow-off to the sell line at approximately $250k–$300k - at least that’s my expectation as off today.
Risk-On Warning: First Blow-Off incoming!
UPDATE: Major indicators are lining up in a pre-recession formation. The 10Y-2Y Yield spread has maintained its position above the 0 level after spending for 2 years below the zero line. Historically, a recession within 6-7 months after the reversal is to be expected. As the reversal happened in August 2024, the timeframe has now shrunk to within the next 2-3 months.
Sounds bad, but history shows also that the reversal ignited a final rally first. That’s what we are witnessing at the moment.