Strate𝔾 Update - Week 23 | Q2 | 2024
Stocks at ATH's again, Bitcoin still undecisive
Please note that while I can provide information and insights based on my knowledge, it's important to remember that I cannot offer specific financial advice. #nfa
News of this week
Australia's first Bitcoin spot ETF began trading this week.
Thailand has given the green light to its inaugural spot Bitcoin ETF.
VanEck's CEO predicts Bitcoin will ultimately represent at least half of gold's market capitalization. The $90 billion asset manager also forecasts Ethereum could hit $22,000 by 2030.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse anticipates spot XRP ETFs will be available by 2025.
SEC Chair Gary Gensler criticizes crypto exchanges, stating they engage in practices that traditional exchanges like the NYSE would never be permitted to do.
NVIDIA's market capitalization has exceeded $3 trillion.
Standard Chartered Bank suggests Bitcoin could reach $150,000 if Donald Trump wins the presidential election.
Russian President Vladimir Putin confirms that BRICS is developing an independent payment system, free from political influence and external control.
At a tech fundraiser in San Francisco, Donald Trump referred to himself as the "Crypto President."
Tweet of this week —> “You're looking at the first breakout of Bitcoin against M1 money supply since March 2017 when it went historically parabolic for 9 months.”
Current status 100% Winning strategy: 🔵—> ALL-IN
a price drop to $45,6k would flash the black signal.
Bitcoin
People are asking why Bitcoin still is able to trade below $70k after so much money flows in from all the ETFs. A part of the answer lies in this chart I’ve shown in May:
Evidently, the distribution of long-term holders to shorter term holders is already in full swing, clearly shown by the recent roll over in coins held longer than 1 year. This also happened during the previous blow-off phases reaching the blue trendline on the symlog chart.
BTC/M1 [3W] Head & Shoulders Breakout
Bitcoin (BTC) divided by M1 has confirmed a massive breakout from a 6.5-year Head & Shoulders pattern on the 3-week (3W) chart. This pattern is a bullish indicator suggesting a potential significant price increase.
M1: A measure of the money supply that includes very liquid assets like cash and checking deposits. Dividing BTC by M1 yields a graph which corrects for the amount of cash supply. Since 2017 the M1 supply has surged, making that the value of 1 BTC hasn’t reached an ATH ever since, when this gets taken into accoumt.
After a 12-week retest of the neckline with increasing volume, Bitcoin looks poised for a dramatic price surge. This bullish outlook is even stronger when adjusted for M1, indicating growing liquidity and investment potential in the market.
Volume of BTC / USD confirms the Head and Shoulders set up.
Last week the following two scenario’s were discussed. Price has not made a decisive move for one of the scenarios to get invalidated.:
Correction 3-4 on the right chart is already final, blow-off wave 5 is about to kick in. ATH needs to be broken for this. Peak target lies between ~$235k-$260k
Correction 3-4 on the right isn’t final, first another leg down is next, wave C. After that blow-off wave 4-5 kicks in. Peak target lies between ~$260k-$330k
