Strate𝔾 Update - Week 26 | Q2 | 2025
Boring on the LTF, Still exciting on HTF
The information and insights are based on my knowledge; don’t take it as financial advice.
Summary
Bitcoin takes downside liquidity during weekend ‘Iran’ dump
Altcoin market cap retests neck line cup and handle
ETH/BTC retests support zone after breakout
Dollar is really in a downtrend now
Key Metrics
Current status 100% Winning strategy: 🔵—> ALL-IN
a weekly candle close below $85.8k would flash the black signal.
10Y-2Y Yield Spread is well above zero
Content
BITCOIN
ALTCOINS
STOCKS
FOREX
SUPERMACRO CONTEXT (BTC/STOCKS/FOREX)
Elliott Waves, Explained by Riding a Col
Rode the Col de la Croix de Fer today — felt like riding an Elliott Wave.
Wave 1: Legs fresh but you push a bit too hard — early overextension.
Wave 2: Sharp and volatile — fast downhill breaks your rhythm.
Wave 3: The main momentum — longest, steady grind. Real progress, legs fading.
Wave 4: You feel like quitting — exhausted, ready to give up. The bear trap. But the summit’s still ahead.
Wave 5: Blow-off top — a final explosive sprint, but momentum is weaker (bearish divergence)
If Wave 4 enters Wave 1 territory (i.e., drops below the top of Wave 1), the pattern effectively becomes a different climb — a different “col” — rather than a continuation of the same Elliott Wave. This aligns with the EW-rule that W4<W1. If it happens it becomes a subwave.
Recession Indication - US10Y breaks above Fed Rate
The US10Y in black is breaking back above the Fed Rate, something we always witness during the start of a recession…
That’s why I still see the first scenario play out with an early $BTC top at $325k before mid-July.
1. BITCOIN
Two weeks ago Bitcoin grabbed some downside liquidity but not all. This week during the Iran attack the liquidity below $100k was fully taken. Now the ATH zone is becoming a liquidity magnet. Since the ATH price has corrected in a
First Bitcoin rose on fear, now it will rise on liquidations. The peak will be characterized by a lot of long term holders starting to take profits, i.e. dormant wallets getting active again. All major top indicators are still about halfway to the peak zone (Rhodl Ratio, MVRV Z-Score, etc.).
