Strateš¾ Update - Week 37 | Q3 | 2024
Risk-On Warning: First Blow-Off incoming!
The information and insights are based on my knowledge; donāt take it as financial advice.
News
Bernstein suggests that Donald Trump's re-election could drive Bitcoin's price to $90,000.
Tokyo Electric Power, Japan's largest energy provider, plans to use renewable energy sources for Bitcoin mining.
Federal Reserve official Goolsbee warns that the likelihood of a recession could be increasing.
Elon Musk is expected to lead Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Mastercard rolls out a crypto debit card in Europe, allowing users to spend from self-custody wallets at over 100 million retailers.
Zurich Cantonal Bank, Switzerland's fourth-largest bank, introduces Bitcoin and Ethereum trading services.
FBI issues a warning that North Korea is attempting to hack and steal U.S. cryptocurrency and Bitcoin ETF funds.
Current status 100% Winning strategy: (šµ)ā> (ALL-IN)
a weekly candle close below $54.6k would really flash the black signal.
Risk-On Warning: First Blow-Off incoming!
The Yield spread (10-2Y) has reversed back above zero after staying below for over 2 years. Yield curve has flipped back above zero, Fed rate cuts starting next week.
Similar patterns preceded a recession within 6 months in the past, but ignited a final rally first. After that? Sharp collapse. Compare it yourself in the chart below.
Bitcoin
As long as the price closes above the 54.6k level, the iv-v wave shown below will likely be confirmed by surpassing the ATH set earlier this year. It's evident that the price is still in the iii-iv correction phase, with the exciting final blow-off wave iv-v yet to begin.
Invalidation for wave iv-v to play out lies at $31.8k. Based on historical data a fifth wave seems unlikely whenever price closes two Fibonacci levels lower, in this case a close below $40k.
Notice how wave iii-iv now qualifies as a descending broadening wedge, comparable to the correction containing the COVID-dip [(1)-(2)].
