Strateš¾ Update - Week 38 | Q3 | 2024
Rate cut week
The information and insights are based on my knowledge; donāt take it as financial advice.
News
BlackRock predicts that the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cuts will be less aggressive than market expectations.
Senator Elizabeth Warren advocates for a 0.75% cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
Binance founder CZ is set to be released from prison on September 29th, 2024.
MicroStrategy invests another $1.11 billion, purchasing 18,300 Bitcoin.
Donald Trump states, "We're embracing the future with crypto and moving away from the outdated big banks."
The U.S. government spent $1 trillion in 2024 solely on national debt interest payments.
BlackRock highlights Bitcoin as a hedge against global instability.
eToro resolves its lawsuit with the SEC, agreeing to limit cryptocurrency trading in the U.S.
Grayscale introduces the first U.S.-based XRP Trust Fund.
The UK proposes a bill to formally recognize cryptocurrency as personal property, with the High Court of Justice ruling that Tether's USDT is a legal property.
India remains the global leader in cryptocurrency adoption for the second consecutive year, according to a Reuters report.
U.S. inflation dropped to 2.5% in August 2024.
Current status 100% Winning strategy: (šµ)ā> (ALL-IN)
a weekly candle close below $55.3k would really flash the black signal.
Rate cut week
Live target rate probabilities can be found here. At the moment the expectation is that the FED will cut its target rate with 50 bps on September 18th. This can have a volatile effect on markets, so be aware of that!
Risk-On Warning: First Blow-Off incoming!
The Yield spread (10-2Y) has reversed back above zero after staying below for over 2 years. Yield curve has flipped back above zero, Fed rate cuts starting next week.
Similar patterns preceded a recession within 6 months in the past, but ignited a final rally first. After that? Sharp collapse. Compare it yourself in the chart below.
Bitcoin
As long as the price closes the week above the 55.3k level, the iv-v wave shown below will likely be confirmed by surpassing the ATH set earlier this year. It's evident that the price is still in the iii-iv correction phase, with the exciting final blow-off wave iv-v yet to begin.
Invalidation for wave iv-v to play out lies at $31.8k. Based on historical data a fifth wave seems unlikely whenever price closes two Fibonacci levels lower, in this case a close below $40k.
Notice how wave iii-iv now qualifies as a descending broadening wedge, comparable to the correction containing the COVID-dip [(1)-(2)].
