@GertvanLagen

@GertvanLagen

Share this post

@GertvanLagen
@GertvanLagen
Strateš”¾ Update - Week 43 | Q4 | 2024

Strateš”¾ Update - Week 43 | Q4 | 2024

Gold surges, risk-on remains, BTC heads to ATH after break-out.

Gert van Lagen's avatar
Gert van Lagen
Oct 21, 2024
āˆ™ Paid
2

Share this post

@GertvanLagen
@GertvanLagen
Strateš”¾ Update - Week 43 | Q4 | 2024
Share

The information and insights are based on my knowledge; don’t take it as financial advice.

News

  • Contributions to U.S. presidential campaigns through cryptocurrencies have exceeded $190 million.

  • Gold sets a new record, achieving its highest price ever.

  • BRICS nations plan to adopt digital currencies for investment transactions.

  • DBS, Singapore's largest bank, unveils blockchain-based token services to enhance its banking capabilities.

  • Morgan Stanley, managing $1.3 trillion in assets, reveals $272 million in Bitcoin ETF investments.

  • Bank of America cautions that gold may remain the ultimate safe haven as U.S. Treasury bonds face threats from escalating national debt.

  • The FBI apprehends the individual responsible for hacking the SEC’s Twitter account and spreading false information about a Bitcoin ETF approval.

  • Goldman Sachs predicts the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates to 3.25%–3.5% by mid-2025.

  • Italy plans to increase the capital gains tax on Bitcoin from 26% to 42%.

  • Standard Chartered Bank forecasts Bitcoin could break new records before the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

  • Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve continues to dismiss Bitcoin, maintaining that it holds no value after more than a decade.

  • Unrealized losses at U.S. banks are now seven times higher than those seen during the 2008 financial crisis.

    Image
  • BlackRock is reportedly in discussions with several global crypto exchanges, including Binance, to utilize the BUIDL token as collateral for futures contracts.


Tweet of this week: ā€œWatching #Bitcoin pump while you’re at work knowing you won’t stay there foreverā€


Current status 100% Winning strategy: (šŸ”µ)—> (ALL-IN)

a weekly candle close below $58.3k would really flash the black signal.

CRYPTO:BTCUSD Chart Image by MrGert

Risk-On Warning: First Blow-Off incoming!

The Yield spread (10-2Y) has reversed well back above zero after staying below for over 2 years. With the FED rate now really cut strongly, indicators are lining up in a prerecession formation.

Similar patterns preceded a recession within 6 months in the past, but ignited a final rally first. After that? Sharp collapse. Compare it yourself in the chart below.

OANDA:SPX500USD Chart Image by MrGert

Bitcoin - Falling Broadening Wedge - Update

→ Supermacro Context

Bitcoin (BTC) has broken out of the 7-month descending broadening wedge pattern last week and is currently retesting the upper trend line for support.

Image

Historically, a falling broadening wedge within an uptrend has a 79% probability of breaking to the upside. Additionally, there has been a strong rebound off the 40-week simple moving average (SMA) band, further supporting a potential upward move.


As long as the price closes the week above the 58.3k level, the 4-5 wave shown below will likely be confirmed by surpassing the ATH set earlier this year. It's evident that the price is still in the iii-iv correction phase, with the exciting final blow-off wave iv-v yet to begin.

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
Ā© 2025 Gert van Lagen
Privacy āˆ™ Terms āˆ™ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share