Strate𝔾 Update - Week 5 | Q1 | 2024
Powell allows stocks to continue their surge
Please note that while I can provide information and insights based on my knowledge, it's important to remember that I cannot offer specific financial advice. #nfa
Strate𝔾 Channel update December: LINK TO YOUTUBE
Key take aways
Net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs equates to +28,867 BTC until now (other ETFs minus GBTC).
The FED paused again, strong job market data shows cuts will be pushed beyond Mar-24.
The blowoff top has arrived for stocks as both S&P 500 as Nasdaq-100 have reached again fresh ATH’s this week and closed the week at those higher levels as well.
News of this week
Google updates policy allowing the advertising of Bitcoin and crypto trusts; BlackRock and VanEck now promote Spot Bitcoin ETFs on the platform.
Saudi Arabia officially joins BRICS.
FTX expects to fully repay its crypto customers.
The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50%.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Current status 100% Winning strategy: 🔵(ALL-IN zone)
Let’s kick this week off with a revisit of the comparison between Google in 2004-2008 and Bitcoin in 2009-2024. Why is is this relevant? Google was listed in 2004 on the stock exchanges and grew at a strong exponential level to unseen heights within a few years, until the first recession kicked in (2008). Bitcoin started in 2009, just after the 2008 recession and has never seen a strong recession ever since. The price action of Bitcoin during its first 4 halvings is very comparable to Google’s during its first 4 years on the stock market.
Both price trajectories can be subdivided as follows:
① ② ③ ④ ⑤: the move up in 4 periods of time can be subdivided in 5 subwaves.
②-③: this move can be subdivided into 5 subsubwaves itself —> cyan, between brackets.
(2)-(3): this move can be subdivided into 5 subsubsubwaves —> blue
④-⑤: this move has already had four subwaves (1)-(4)
(4)-(5): this is the final wave up targeting the green trendline through ① and ③.
After the green trendline through ① and ③ is hit at ~$200k, the first supermacro correction starts taking place, targeting subwave (4) of ②-③, i.e. <$3k.
Is this the end for Bitcoin? A recession serves as a litmus test for companies and ideas, pushing them to their limits. If an asset weathers the storm, it often initiates a larger-scale wave 3. In this context, I've compared the initial two decades of Google with a projection for the first 20 halvings of Bitcoin. Given the striking similarity between the first 4 halvings and the first 4 years of Google, this comparison seems valid.
Expectations that can be inferred if Bitcoin successfully endures its inaugural recession:
It is likely to take several halvings (4 to 5 equating to 16-20 years) for Bitcoin to recover from this substantial -99.5% dip.
Around 2040, Bitcoin is anticipated to surpass its all-time high at $200k, commencing a macro wave 3 that could see Bitcoin trading at tens of millions of dollars by the end of the century (20th halving = 2092).
1.618 → 2.272 Theory (update)
Comparing the recovery and extension of the 2011, 2014 and 2018 bearmarkets, the following repeating structure is observed.
🟢 First Struggle to overcome the 0.618-0.786 before ATH.
🔴 Second Struggle to overcome the 1.618 extension resistance.
When breaking through the 🔴 1.618 resistance, previous 2 times price flew within 1-3 months to its next cycle top at around the 2.272 extension. Guess what, the 2.272 extension of the 2018 bearmarket lies at $205k.
Here the updated chart:
2Y+ channel - Update
Price keeps tracking the parabolic surge of W5 before the halving. After the struggle of months (compare red circles), Bitcoin has succeeded to overcome the gravitation of the 2.25Y+ descending channel.
The main Fibonacci extension targets of W4 are at $150k, $170k and $220k, where the last one aligns closely with the upper trendline of the supermacro channel on the symmetrical log scale (two charts above).
It's important to note that W5, being a blow-off wave, might exhibit a steep ascent as depicted, but the key point is that there's one final impulse left.
Here the updated chart:
Elliottwave count:
W1: 1st impulse
W2: 1st correction (zigzag, sharp)
W3: 2nd impulse (momentum)
W4: 2nd correction (expanded flat)
W5: 3rd impulse (blow-off, next up)
Flat correction?
Regarding the nature of the correction, yes, W4 retraced only 50% of W3 in a complex expanded flat pattern of ABC. In contrast, W2 was a sharp zigzag correction, retracing 90% of W1.
Step-like formation - Update
BTC still follows the parabolic structure to reach $200k before May this year. The long awaited impulsive bust to $60k+ in the shortest period of time has started. In the mean time price is far above Base 3 already and on it's way to Base 4. Note that the sketched trajectory is a structural expectation, not exactly timewise.
Here the updated chart:
Elliottwave count:
Wave 1: Base 1 to Base 3
Wave 2: Base 3 (Flat)
Wave 3: Base 3 to Base 4
Wave 4: Base 4 (Likely sharp)
Wave 5: Base 4 to SELL POINT
Altcap - update
ALTCAP Excluding $ETH (TOTAL3) has tested the A-top likely for the last time previous week, because we have another green candle on this chart this week. Comparing to $BTC it’s still lagging, so when it takes off, you won’t believe your eyes.
Have a look at the price action after the wicky pullback to the purple horizontal as shown in the Bulkowsky exemplary chart of a Head with Shoulders bottom to see what is likely next for TOTAL3.
